Staggered lockup schedule confirmed from the 424B4 final prospectus.
Musk holds 6.4B shares locked until Jun 12, 2027 — the largest single overhang in IPO history.
Public Float Expansion
Only ~4% of shares are tradeable today — the tightest float of any mega-cap IPO in history. This is why a $1.75T company moves 10%+ in a single session. Supply expands in waves through Dec 8, 2026.
⚡ Q2 Bonus Unlock Trigger — $175.50
An extra 10% of the locked block (~460M shares) unlocks alongside Q2 earnings (Aug 6) only if SPCX closes ≥$175.50 on at least 5 of the 10 trading days before that date. Currently below threshold — less supply pressure at Q2 earnings.
Core metrics to track each quarter. Starlink is the only profit engine right now.
✏ Edit mode active — update values below, then click 📋 Copy config and paste into the FUNDAMENTALS block in the HTML file.
Position Projections
Wall Street Analyst Range · as of Aug 24, 2026
Consensus (28 buy, 2 sell)
$216.33
Post-Q2 earnings: 28 buys, 2 sells. Consensus jumped from $187 to $216 as revenue beat by $880M. At today's $136, SPCX trades at a 37% discount to consensus. Citi revised higher after the print. DZ Bank initiated Sell at $100. Morningstar fair value still $62.
Scenario
Base
Drag to model outcomes
💥 RUD
Bear
Base
Bull
🚀 Ludicrous
Fundamentals last verified: ·
Data sourced from SpaceX S-1 and Goldman Sachs research · Not financial advice.
Conditions that should trigger deployment of remaining tranches — or cause you to pause. Updated post-IPO.
✅ Cleared — No Longer Risks
✓
Q2 earnings beat — revenue $7.81B vs $6.93B expected, +92% YoYAI segment +247%. Starlink +66%, doubled subscribers to 12M. Net loss narrowed to $541M. Cash $93.5B. Capex $18.37B was the only scare — market has since absorbed it.
✓
Aug 6 unlock (911.5M shares) absorbed — stock recovered above IPO priceFirst major supply wave absorbed faster than expected. Bonus 10% tranche did NOT trigger ($175.50 threshold not met), limiting supply. Citi revised forecasts higher post-print.
✓
Aug 20 unlock (319M shares) — today SPCX climbed 3%, selloff didn't materialiseSecond calendar tranche absorbed with minimal lasting pressure. Float now ~14%. Cathie Wood bought $27.5M, Nvidia disclosed $21B stake in 13F filings. Institutional base building.
✓
$20B bridge loan risk eliminated (Jun 26)$25B bond issuance drew $89B demand. Five tranches, 2031-2056 maturities, 5.35-6.65% yield. Balance sheet risk is gone.
✓
MSCI index inclusion — $15-20B in structural passive buying underwayTriggered June 13. SPCX now a top-10 MSCI World constituent. Passive funds must buy to rebalance, creating price-insensitive demand.
🔭 Active Watch — Entry Triggers
→Sep 9 unlock (~319M shares) — 90-day tranche16 days away. At today's prices, float is still only ~14%. Each tranche adds supply, but Aug 20 showed the market can absorb these. Watch for a pre-unlock dip as a potential entry.
→SPCX at or below $135 IPO price — current level is historically strong entryStock is at $136 today — essentially IPO price — while Q2 revenue beat by $880M, AI contracted backlog hit $14.1B, and 28 of 30 analysts rate it Buy. The discount to consensus ($216) is 37%.
→Q3 earnings (~Nov 15) — biggest binary of the yearTriggers the 28% major unlock. If AI segment continues +200% trajectory, the capex narrative flips from cost concern to revenue pull-forward. First quarter where xAI revenue could be material.
→Dec 8 full lockup expiry — potential capitulation low, then permanent floorHistorical pattern: maximum supply + maximum fear = best entry. After Dec 8 the float is permanent and volatility structurally reduces. Long-term buyers often wait for this date.
→Cursor acquisition ($60B) integration signal — AI enterprise revenue line opensAnnounced Q2. First sign of xAI enterprise monetization beyond cloud compute. Watch for Cursor revenue appearing in Q3 or Q4 AI segment. Could be the inflection point bears said wouldn't come.
Bearish / Pause
✗xAI losses accelerate beyond $3B/quarter with no revenue path
✗Starlink ARPU continues declining below $66 as lower-income market expansion compresses revenue
✗Leveraged ETF forced rebalancing triggers cascading sell-off (already happened once Jun 16-23)
✗Amazon Kuiper gains meaningful Starlink market share in enterprise or government
✗Q2 earnings miss on both Starlink growth and xAI losses — double negative
The Musk wildcard
Musk holds 85% of voting power and 6.4B shares locked until Jun 12, 2027. The Tesla/SpaceX merger thesis resurfaced this week per TipRanks — Tesla stockholders are calling it the "ultimate endgame." Any credible signal moves both stocks 10%+ in either direction. His political visibility and X/Twitter management remain unmodelable risks.