Staggered lockup schedule confirmed from the 424B4 final prospectus.
Musk holds 6.4B shares locked until Jun 12, 2027 — the largest single overhang in IPO history.
Public Float Expansion
Only ~4% of shares are tradeable today — the tightest float of any mega-cap IPO in history. This is why a $1.75T company moves 10%+ in a single session. Supply expands in waves through Dec 8, 2026.
⚡ Q2 Bonus Unlock Trigger — $175.50
An extra 10% of the locked block (~460M shares) unlocks alongside Q2 earnings (Aug 6) only if SPCX closes ≥$175.50 on at least 5 of the 10 trading days before that date. Currently below threshold — less supply pressure at Q2 earnings.
Core metrics to track each quarter. Starlink is the only profit engine right now.
✏ Edit mode active — update values below, then click 📋 Copy config and paste into the FUNDAMENTALS block in the HTML file.
Position Projections
Wall Street Analyst Range · as of Jun 24, 2026
Bear · Morningstar DCF
$62
Consensus (6 buys, 1 sell)
$187.80
The $248 spread between Morningstar ($62 DCF) and the high estimate ($310) is wider than any comparable large-cap IPO. SPCX hit $225 in its first week — already above 6 of 7 analyst targets. The gap reflects genuine uncertainty about whether xAI monetizes, not noise.
Scenario
Base
Drag to model outcomes
💥 RUD
Bear
Base
Bull
🚀 Ludicrous
Fundamentals last verified: ·
Data sourced from SpaceX S-1 and Goldman Sachs research · Not financial advice.
Conditions that should trigger deployment of remaining tranches — or cause you to pause. Updated post-IPO.
✅ Cleared — No Longer Risks
✓
$20B bridge loan risk eliminatedSpaceX raised $25B in bonds (Jun 23) drawing $89B demand — 3.5x oversubscribed. Bridge loan due Sep 2027 fully retired. Debt now spread across 5 maturities from 2031-2056. Institutional credit market has spoken.
✓
MSCI index inclusion — passive buying underwayMSCI early-inclusion triggered June 13 — one day after listing. SPCX now a top-10 constituent of MSCI World and MSCI ACWI. Estimated $15-20B in passive fund inflows required to rebalance to new index weights.
🔭 Active Watch — Entry Triggers
→SPCX stays below $175.50 heading into Aug 6 earningsBonus 10% unlock doesn't trigger → less supply pressure → better post-earnings entry. Current:
→Stock drops to $147 range (ATL) on macro or ETF-driven selling, not fundamentalsAll-time low was $147.11 on Jun 23. That level represents the clearest technical support pre-lockup expiry. A retest is a gift if earnings trajectory holds.
→Q2 earnings beat on Starlink subscribers or ARPUFirst public earnings report Aug 6. xAI loss size is already known — the surprise factor is Starlink growth. Beat on subscribers = multiple expansion.
→Dec 8 full lockup expiry creates capitulation lowHistorically the best post-IPO entry point. Maximum supply hits simultaneously, institutional buyers absorb it, and the float becomes permanently larger and less volatile.
Bearish / Pause
✗xAI losses accelerate beyond $3B/quarter with no revenue path
✗Starlink ARPU continues declining below $66 as lower-income market expansion compresses revenue
✗Leveraged ETF forced rebalancing triggers cascading sell-off (already happened once Jun 16-23)
✗Amazon Kuiper gains meaningful Starlink market share in enterprise or government
✗Q2 earnings miss on both Starlink growth and xAI losses — double negative
The Musk wildcard
Musk holds 85% of voting power and 6.4B shares locked until Jun 12, 2027. The Tesla/SpaceX merger thesis resurfaced this week per TipRanks — Tesla stockholders are calling it the "ultimate endgame." Any credible signal moves both stocks 10%+ in either direction. His political visibility and X/Twitter management remain unmodelable risks.